SPOLYTICS / A DIFFERENT READ ON GAME DAY
Watch the game.
Understand the numbers.
Explore what the numbers say about a match, see the reasoning, and come back to check the result.
Start with the free board. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
648 games graded in the current pipelines. See the report for periods, samples and limitations.
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Recent updates — what changed and why
- 2026-10-01
Displayed probabilities now calibrated to actual hit rates
Picks shown at 55%+ were hitting 6–14 points lower than displayed. Probabilities are now pulled toward the last 60 days of graded results.
- 2026-10-01
Combo pick track record added to the Report page
Combo picks had no public hit/miss history. Every graded combo is now listed by date, as-is.
- 2026-10-01
NFL weekly picks and college football picks now locked and graded
Picks are locked before kickoff and graded after, so numbers cannot be changed later. Locked picks are never edited.
- 2026-10-01
Data/Report accuracy now shows real graded numbers
Hit rates and error scores come from actual game results, shown with sample size and date range — not example figures.
- 2026-10-01
Internal model table permissions tightened
19 internal tables including model calibration values were publicly readable. Only the site server can read them now.
Next NFL three-game combo
Winner model probabilities from three separate games. Each probability is adjusted using graded track record, and one miss breaks the whole combo.
36.2%
Track-record-adjusted joint probability
Product of the three leg probabilities
01 · 5:00 PM UTC
Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
71.8%
Model 77%
02 · 8:25 PM UTC
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
71.8%
Model 77%
03 · 8:05 PM UTC
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
70.2%
Model 75%
Each leg probability is shrunk toward 50% using graded track record, and the combo figure is the product of those three values. Correlation adjustment stays off until 30 combos are graded. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
All NFL weekly model probabilitiesData updated
Today's Games
20 live · 23 upcoming · 15 final · 58 total
MLB
4
College Football (FBS)
54Live model probabilities
Probability · interval · recordModel record: NCAAF Brier 0.229 (744 graded)
- LiveNCAA Football0–7
North Dakota State Bison win
97%Wyoming Cowboys @ North Dakota State Bison · Heuristic range 93.8–99.9% (±3.2%p)
- LiveNCAA Football7–0
Massachusetts Minutemen win
97%Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Massachusetts Minutemen · Heuristic range 93.8–99.9% (±3.2%p)
- LiveNCAA Football0–3
Miami (OH) RedHawks win
97%Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami (OH) RedHawks · Heuristic range 93.8–99.9% (±3.2%p)
- LiveNCAA Football3–14
Georgia State Panthers win
97%Old Dominion Monarchs @ Georgia State Panthers · Heuristic range 93.8–99.9% (±3.2%p)
Keep exploring,
explore Pro.
Start with the free board. Compare the plans when you want to explore more.
- 20
- Live
- 58
- Modeled
- 2
- Leagues
Why trust these numbers?
Soccer 3-way RPS
—
Good benchmark ≤0.21
Overall Brier score
—
Good benchmark ≤0.22
Games scored to date
—
Finished games only, nothing removed
- 1. Public stats only — Game and player records come from the MLB Stats API, ESPN and official league feeds.
- 2. Deterministic models — Spolytics Engine combines team strength, scoring distributions and simulation to produce every number. No hunches — calculation only.
- 3. Re-graded daily — Each morning finished games are scored and the calibration is refit.
Transparent accuracy
Our Brier scores and calibration curves are public. See exactly how often we're right — and wrong.
View accuracy reportStats-only inputs
Odds are never used as a model input. Spolytics is a statistics and probability research product, not a sportsbook.
Open methodology
Every probability comes with a one-line rationale. Our models and methods are published, not hidden.
Daily learning journal