Spolytics Model Notes for 2026-09-07: 15 Games Evaluated
On 2026-09-07, the Spolytics model computed probabilities across 15 games, including 11 MLB games, 2 La Liga games, and 2 Serie A games. The calculations reflect morning locked model outputs derived from expected scoring totals, Poisson distributions, and Skellam margins.
Probabilities computed that day
- 88.0%
Real Sociedad at Elche
라리가 · Both 총 2골 이상 · O 1.5
- 81.0%
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
MLB · Boston Red Sox 홈 +1.5 · Run Line
- 77.0%
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers 홈 +1.5 · Run Line
- 75.0%
Lecce at Cagliari
세리에 A · Cagliari 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals
- 74.0%
Lazio at Udinese
세리에 A · Udinese 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals
- 70.0%
Celta Vigo at Getafe
라리가 · Getafe 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals
Highest Probability Model Computations
The highest computed probability today is 88.0% for Real Sociedad at Elche (Total 2+ Goals / O 1.5), based on an expected combined total of 3.68 goals evaluated via a Poisson distribution. In MLB, the Boston Red Sox Home +1.5 Run Line against the Los Angeles Angels reached 81.0% with expected runs of 3.6 vs 4.2, and the Los Angeles Dodgers Home +1.5 Run Line against the Cincinnati Reds reached 77.0% with expected runs of 3.8 vs 4.8. In Serie A, Cagliari 1+ Goals against Lecce reached 75.0% from an expected 1.40 goals, while Udinese 1+ Goals against Lazio reached 74.0% from an expected 1.33 goals. In La Liga, Getafe 1+ Goals against Celta Vigo reached 70.0% based on an expected goal total of 1.21.
Methodology and Model Scored Performance
Probabilities are calculated using public stats APIs, combining base rates with capped parameter adjustments across 21 logged days of daily refitting. Over 35610 graded samples, the model records a hit rate of 69.3% and a Brier score of 0.200, where lower scores indicate higher calibration accuracy.
These figures present statistical probabilities calculated from team expected scoring values and historical distributional models across 15 games. All output probabilities are estimates subject to error and do not represent guaranteed match results.