Spolytics Research Note: 2026-09-08 Coverage

Probabilities computed that day

• Villarreal at Borussia Dortmund

  UCL · Borussia Dortmund 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals

  91.0%

• LASK Linz at AEK Athens

  UCL · Both 총 2골 이상 · O 1.5

  86.0%

• Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

  MLB · Boston Red Sox 홈 +1.5 · Run Line

  81.0%

• Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

  MLB · New York Yankees 홈 +1.5 · Run Line

  80.0%

Top Probabilities and Model Outputs

In the UCL, the model calculated a 91.0% probability for Borussia Dortmund 1+ Goals against Villarreal, driven by an expected goals figure of 2.42. For LASK Linz at AEK Athens, a Poisson model derived an 86.0% probability for Over 1.5 total goals based on a combined expected goals total of 3.45. In MLB action, Boston Red Sox Home +1.5 Run Line against Los Angeles Angels yielded an 81.0% probability, derived from expected runs of 3.7 versus 4.1 and Skellam distribution calculations for multi-run margins. Similarly, New York Yankees Home +1.5 Run Line against Colorado Rockies recorded an 80.0% probability, with expected runs of 4.1 versus 4.4 evaluated under the Skellam distribution framework.

Model Methodology and Historical Performance

Calculations integrate data from public stats APIs to form base rates with capped adjustments, refined over 21 days of daily refitting logged. Performance tracking across 36648 graded samples displays a Brier score of 0.201 and a hit rate of 69.2%. The Brier score quantifies probability calibration accuracy, where a lower score reflects superior accuracy.