Spolytics Research Note: September 10, 2026 Analysis
On September 10, 2026, the Spolytics model computed probabilities across 12 games, covering UCL (6 games), MLB (5 games), and NFL (1 games). The calculations produced estimated probabilities based on statistical distributions and team expected scores.
Probabilities computed that day
- 91.0%
Sabah FK at Manchester United
UCL · Manchester United 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals
- 89.0%
Bodo/Glimt at Bayern Munich
UCL · Both 총 2골 이상 · O 1.5
- 81.0%
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
MLB · New York Yankees 홈 +1.5 · Run Line
- 79.0%
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
NFL · San Francisco 49ers 15점 차 이내 · Spread +14.5
- 71.0%
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Philadelphia Phillies 홈 +1.5 · Run Line
Highest Model Probabilities and Calculated Notes
In UCL action, Manchester United 1+ Goals against Sabah FK reached a 91.0% probability based on expected team goals of 2.44. In Bodo/Glimt at Bayern Munich, Over 1.5 total goals reached 89.0%, derived from an expected total of 3.81 goals using a Poisson distribution. In MLB, New York Yankees +1.5 against Colorado Rockies registered 81.0%, calculated from expected scores of 4.0 versus 4.2 using a Skellam distribution. In the NFL matchup between San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco +14.5 showed 79.0% based on an expected score margin of 3.3 points. Finally, Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 against Houston Astros stood at 71.0% with expected scores of 4.1 versus 4.0.
Model Methodology and Performance Metrics
Model probabilities are generated using public stats APIs, establishing base rates with capped adjustments, alongside daily refitting. Tracking performance across 21 days of daily refitting logged and 39426 graded samples, the model has recorded a Brier score of 0.202 and a hit rate of 69.0%.
These calculated outputs serve as statistical estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes. Probabilities inherently contain margin for error and should be interpreted strictly as distributional projections.