Spolytics Model Analysis: September 15, 2026

Probabilities computed that day

• Valencia at Alavés

  라리가 · Alavés 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals

  92.0%

• Espanyol at Rayo Vallecano

  라리가 · Espanyol 1골 이상 득점 · 1+ Goals

  86.0%

• Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

  MLB · Tampa Bay Rays 홈 +1.5 · Run Line

  82.0%

• San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

  MLB · Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+ · 안타 1+

  78.0%

Highest Probability Calculations

In La Liga, Alavés 1+ Goals against Valencia was computed at 92.0%, backed by 2.72 expected goals and a -1pp calibration adjustment from a past 210 cases beta adjustment. Espanyol 1+ Goals against Rayo Vallecano reached 86.0%, using 2.29 expected goals and a -4pp calibration adjustment across the same past 210 cases beta adjustment dataset. In MLB, Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 Run Line against the Athletics registered at 82.0%, calculating the rate at which the away team does not win by 2 or more runs from expected runs of 3.8 vs 4.3 using a Skellam distribution. Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Hits reached 78.0%, drawing from a 0.289 season BA, a 0.297 Statcast xBA, and a 7/30 BvP adjusted to 0.303 over 4 plate appearances via binomial distribution, alongside a -10pp stacking adjustment from a past 4,501 cases metamodel with a cap applied.

Model Methodology and Calibration Metrics

Model probabilities are derived from public stats APIs by establishing base rates combined with capped adjustments for situational factors. Daily refitting ensures model parameters adjust to ongoing results, while current tracking records 0 graded samples and 0 days of daily refitting logged.