Spolytics Daily Model Note: October 2, 2026
On October 2, 2026, the Spolytics model evaluated 1 WNBA game to generate win probabilities based on statistical inputs. The highest calculated home win probability for today's slate belongs to the Golden State Valkyries at 72.0% against the Dallas Wings.
Probabilities computed that day
- 72.0%
Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries 홈 승 · Home ML
Top Model Estimates for October 2, 2026
The single game evaluated today features the Dallas Wings at the Golden State Valkyries, where the model computed a 72.0% home win probability for Golden State. This calculation incorporated season win-loss records of 32-12 for Golden State and 27-17 for Dallas using a Log5 framework adjusted for home advantage. Further adjustments included missing player metrics accounting for 1 home absence versus 3 away absences, along with a +4pp stacking addition derived from 1,782 historical metamodel cases, with final win-loss probabilities normalized to 100%.
Model Methodology and Scored Performance
Spolytics outputs are derived from public stats APIs using base rates plus capped adjustments and daily refitting, with 20 days of daily refitting logged to date. Performance tracking across 16879 graded samples shows a Brier score of 0.202 and a hit rate of 69.0%. Lower Brier scores demonstrate calibrated probabilistic performance over time.
These output figures serve as statistical probability estimates rather than definitive predictions of game outcomes. Model probabilities represent calculated likelihoods based on historical data and remain subject to statistical error.