Updates

A version-by-version record of what changed in the models, the data and the interface. If a projection moved, the reason is here.

Latest v2.3.0· 2026-09-12

1. v2.3.02026-09-12

   Game Center overhaul and engine audit

   • UIReplaced the game detail page with the new Game Center UI. Live and pre-game probabilities are shown separately, and starting pitchers, recent form, weather, lineups and player models are grouped by category. Saved-pick controls and Pro lock states are integrated.
   • ModelAudited how prediction accuracy is measured. Forecasts are now snapshotted before kickoff and graded against the final result, so the past is never rewritten after the fact. Train/test splits were also made strictly date-based.
   • ModelSeparated NFL live win probability from the basketball clock model. It shows 'unavailable' until the football-specific version is validated.
   • FeatureSaved model probabilities now sync across devices, and older saved model probabilities without an event time are automatically migrated to new keys to prevent duplicates.
   • FeatureAdded email ownership confirmation (double opt-in) for newsletter subscriptions. Unconfirmed addresses do not receive daily emails.
   • FixStrengthened payment webhook signature verification, duplicate-event prevention, stale-event blocking and retryable error responses when DB writes fail. Pro access checks are now consistent across server and client.
   • FeatureAdded team hub pages at /team/$league/$slug, wired them into the sitemap and game-page links so team win-probability pages are discoverable by search engines.
   • FeatureAdded NFL weekly model probabilities at /nfl-model probabilities. Pregame Win Probability selections are locked before kickoff and graded Hit/Miss after the games to show a weekly record.
2. v2.2.02026-09-01

   Monochrome redesign and the live-model probabilities rail

   • UIRedesigned the entire site around a black-and-white grayscale palette. Only live, positive and caution signals keep color (red, green, amber); league and team chips were unified to a single neutral tone.
   • UIFlattened the mobile experience to an ultra-minimal structure. Card borders and corner radii were replaced with hairline-divided lists, and filter tabs and header controls were trimmed down.
   • FeatureAdded a live-model probabilities rail to the home dashboard. In-progress games show 'probability → 95% interval → league track record (n · Brier)' on a single row, and the pick flips to the currently favored side when the live probability reverses the pre-game subject.
   • UICondensed the mobile home card's probability, interval and reasoning into a single-line summary, and added a 3-step 'probability → interval → sport performance' summary at the top of /methodology on mobile. Long-form text and diagrams are tucked away on small screens.
3. v2.1.02026-09-01

   Pick-rank auto-refit and mobile card refresh

   • ModelToday's pick ranking is now auto-refit every night. League-level Brier scores are stabilized with James-Stein shrinkage, and the weights for probability, sport performance and calibration bucket are grid-searched over a 30-day sliding window.
   • ModelIn-progress game probabilities are recomputed from live stats (innings, quarters, map scores) and shown alongside the original value. Grading still uses the locked publish probability.
   • FeatureToday's Probabilities cards now show a real-time Hit/Miss badge based on actual finished results.
   • Feature/todays-model probabilities is now grouped by sport, showing each sport's cumulative Brier score and hit rate at the top. On mobile, sections with more than five model probabilities can be collapsed.
   • UIMobile pick cards were reorganized so probability, confidence interval and reasoning scan faster. The title, game info and probability block are stacked vertically, and duplicated interval labels were removed.
4. v2.0.12026-08-28

   Methodology page adds shadow Player Probabilities

   • FeatureAdded an explanation of soccer shadow Player Probabilities (anytime scorer, shots and shots on target) to /methodology, and updated the ENGINE_PILLARS and ENGINE_RULES comparison table.
5. v2.0.02026-08-28

   Engine v2.0 and methodology rewrite

   • ModelThe public engine version moved to v2.0. Soccer is now the core: Spolytics Engine parameters are refit per league weekly, and totals, BTTS and margin lines are derived from the same scoreline grid.
   • ModelAdded a shot-level simulation simulator in shadow mode. It runs and is graded daily, but the blend weight is 0 so displayed probabilities are unchanged.
   • ModelRemoved all pitcher strikeout markets. NFL uses a starting-QB EPA adjustment (±120 rating points) and esports uses map-level strength index for series probabilities.
   • FeatureRewrote the methodology page for v2.0: a change summary block, sections for soccer markets, the shadow simulator, EPL ingestion and the live-probability guard, plus a v1.0 vs v2.0 rule comparison table.
6. v1.11.52026-08-28

   Pro locked-pick UX improvement

   • UIAdded a friendly, four-step modal that explains what opens after subscribing when a Pro-only probability is tapped. Replaced the old feature list with a visible, step-by-step preview.
7. v1.11.42026-08-13

   FotMob API removed

   • DataRemoved the FotMob data dependency from soccer and K-League probability models. Team season shot stats from ESPN and Naver now power the proxy xG inputs.
8. v1.11.32026-08-12

   Player-prop sample shrinkage

   • FixNFL player-prop projections (passing/rushing/receiving yards, receptions) now shrink toward the same-category cross-team average for the current slate when a player has fewer than about eight games of season data. This prevents a player who has played only one or two early-season games from being projected at full weight.
9. v1.11.22026-08-11

   Season-boundary rating reset

   • ModelA gap of 60+ days between a team's games is treated as a season boundary: only two-thirds of the team's gap to the base rating carries over. This stops rosters that turned over from inheriting last season's full rating.
   • ModelRating uncertainty is also widened at the boundary, so early-season probabilities are not overconfident.
   • ModelSoccer matches involving a team without fitted attack/defence parameters (e.g. newly promoted sides) are no longer flagged as calibrated and are shown with lower confidence.
   • FixAdded regression tests covering the season-boundary logic (165 tests passing).
10. v1.11.12026-08-10

    MLB data expansion

    • DataMLB results are now cross-checked against an additional independent data feed. Score, status and inning are compared; mismatches are logged but do not affect board probabilities.
    • DataAdded a consistency-monitoring layer to detect stale states or missing scores in live-game data quickly.
11. v1.11.02026-08-10

    NFL quarterback adjustment

    • ModelNFL team ratings now include a starting-quarterback adjustment. The active quarterback's EPA per dropback is compared with the team's own quarterback baseline and added to the rating. Thin-sample backups are shrunk toward replacement level, and the adjustment is capped at ±120 rating points.
    • ModelIn a 2023–2025 walk-forward test the Brier score improved from 0.2230 to 0.2204 and hit rate from 65.6% to 66.1%, so it is on by default.
    • ModelSoccer absences are now weighted by the missing player's share of team goals instead of a headcount. Replacements are assumed to cover half the loss, and the expected-goals cut is capped at 18%.
12. v1.10.02026-08-09

    Engine v1.0, published

    • FeatureAdded an engine card to the home board and methodology page: version marker (v1.0) and the four principles that separate it from other published probabilities.
    • ModelThe engine version is now public. When the computation changes, the version and this list move together.
13. v1.9.02026-08-07

    Public patch notes

    • FeatureAdded a public updates page so you can see exactly what changed.
    • FeatureAdded a role management screen (admin/user) for administrator accounts.
14. v1.8.02026-08-06

    Per-locale metadata and time zones

    • FeaturePage titles and descriptions are now server-rendered per language across all five locales.
    • FeatureAutomatic time-zone detection; KBO and K League 1 default to KST.
    • FixFixed stalled first loads by putting a hard deadline on server loaders.
15. v1.7.02026-08-05

    Soccer accuracy, made public

    • FeatureFree accuracy summary at /accuracy: per-league RPS, Brier score and calibration curves.
    • ModelOnly finished matches are scored, and no result is ever dropped from the sample.
16. v1.6.02026-08-04

    Soccer match detail

    • FeatureScoreline heatmap, 10-match xG sparklines, head-to-head history and rosters.
    • ModelAdded corner, card and scorer distributions with 80% uncertainty bands.
17. v1.5.02026-08-03

    Stacking and shrinkage

    • ModelMultiple model outputs are combined in a blended correction layer.
    • ModelPlayer numbers are pulled toward league average on thin samples so they no longer over-swing.
    • ModelAdded Ranked Probability Score to the soccer evaluation metrics.
18. v1.4.02026-08-01

    Live precision

    • FeatureLive inning state and per-player stat tracking while a game is in progress.
    • ModelLive win-probability engine plus a 21-day rolling calibration refit.
19. v1.3.02026-07-30

    Wider data sources

    • DataStatcast (xBA, xSLG, whiff%), park factors, weather and recent bullpen usage now feed the models.
    • DataAdded NFL (nflverse EPA) and eight soccer leagues.
    • ModelEvery new signal is capped at ±4–6% so no single feed can flip a projection.

All figures are estimates computed from public statistics. Outcomes are not guaranteed.