2026-08-07
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 5 highest outputs selected from 23 games across 3 leagues.
01 · MLB · Aug 7 (Fri) · 16:10 PDT
Jack Perkins Ks 5+· K 5+
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
88.0%
adjusted K/9 11.1 (season 10.9, opposing lineup L/R· Statcast whiff% 28.3% adjusted), projected 5.4IP → expected strikeouts 6.7, scoring distribution P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -1pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)
02 · MLB · Aug 7 (Fri) · 17:15 PDT
Nathan Eovaldi Ks 5+· K 5+
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
80.0%
adjusted K/9 10.3 (season 9.5, opposing lineup L/R· Statcast whiff% 30.7%· opponent career K/9 0.0 adjusted), projected 5.6IP → expected strikeouts 6.4, scoring distribution P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)
03 · KBO · Aug 8 (Sat) · 11:00 PDT
KT Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Lotte @ KT
74.0%
home 59-36 (win% 0.621) vs away 44-54 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 684 past events)
04 · KBO · Aug 8 (Sat) · 11:00 PDT
KIA team HR 1 or more· Team HR 1+
KIA @ LG
73.0%
team HR 1.28 per game → 1.31 after weather adjustment — scoring distribution probability of 1+
05 · WNBA · Aug 7 (Fri) · 16:30 PDT
Phoenix Mercury Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability
Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun
67.0%
season record 12-20 vs 7-23 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 882 past events)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.