2026-08-08
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 24 games across 4 leagues.
01 · MLB · Aug 8 (Sat) · 12:05 PDT
Chris Sale Ks 5+· K 5+
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
91.0%
regressed K% 29.3% × opposing lineup K% 24.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 30.7%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 34.2%, expected batters faced 23 → expected strikeouts 7.9, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration +5pp (past 1,391 calibration adjusted)
02 · MLB · Aug 8 (Sat) · 4:15 PDT
Gavin Williams Ks 6+· K 6+
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
89.0%
matchup K% 36.5%, expected batters faced 26 (6.4IP) → expected strikeouts 9.5, tail-aware count model P(≥6)· simulation· calibration +5pp (past 1,391 calibration adjusted)
03 · KBO · Aug 8 (Sat) · 11:00 PDT
KIA team HR 1 or more· Team HR 1+
KIA @ LG
83.0%
team HR 1.28 per game → 1.31 after weather adjustment — scoring distribution probability of 1+
04 · MLS · Aug 8 (Sat) · 1:30 PDT
New England Revolution 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Houston Dynamo FC @ New England Revolution
82.0%
team expected goals 1.70 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
05 · KBO · Aug 8 (Sat) · 11:00 PDT
Hanwha team HR 1 or more· Team HR 1+
Kiwoom @ Hanwha
79.0%
team HR 1.15 per game → 1.18 after weather adjustment — scoring distribution probability of 1+
06 · WNBA · Aug 8 (Sat) · 5:30 PDT
Portland Fire Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Seattle Storm @ Portland Fire
75.0%
season record 12-19 vs 6-27 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 1)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.