2026-08-09
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 4 highest outputs selected from 19 games across 2 leagues.
01 · MLB · Aug 9 (Sun) · 11:10 PDT
Jacob Misiorowski Ks 5+· K 5+
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
91.0%
regressed K% 38.3% × opposing lineup K% 21.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 38.3% → matchup K% 40.6%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 9.6, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration +5pp (past 1,391 calibration adjusted)
02 · MLB · Aug 9 (Sun) · 10:35 PDT
Jesús Luzardo Ks 5+· K 5+
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
86.0%
regressed K% 28.2% × opposing lineup K% 20.0% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 31.4%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 27.2%, expected batters faced 27 → expected strikeouts 7.3, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration +5pp (past 1,391 calibration adjusted)
03 · WNBA · Aug 9 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT
Washington Mystics Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Phoenix Mercury @ Washington Mystics
79.0%
season record 18-12 vs 12-21 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)
04 · WNBA · Aug 9 (Sun) · 12:30 PDT
Minnesota Lynx Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Dallas Wings @ Minnesota Lynx
75.0%
season record 26-7 vs 19-13 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 2)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.