2026-08-11
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 3 highest outputs selected from 18 games across 2 leagues.
01 · MLB · Aug 11 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT
Eury Pérez Ks 5+· K 5+
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
89.0%
regressed K% 26.4% × opposing lineup K% 24.7% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 28.4%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 31.5%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 7.5, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)
02 · MLB · Aug 11 (Tue) · 4:40 PDT
Sean Burke Ks 5+· K 5+
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
88.0%
regressed K% 26.8% × opposing lineup K% 25.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 25.6% → matchup K% 31.3%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 7.6, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)
03 · WNBA · Aug 11 (Tue) · 7:00 PDT
Los Angeles Sparks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks
63.0%
season record 12-19 vs 12-22 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 2)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.