2026-08-12
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 5 highest outputs selected from 19 games across 3 leagues.
01 · WNBA · Aug 12 (Wed) · 7:00 PDT
Minnesota Lynx Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability
Minnesota Lynx @ Portland Fire
86.0%
season record 27-7 vs 13-19 — away adjustment applied
02 · MLB · Aug 12 (Wed) · 12:05 PDT
Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
85.0%
Season AVG 0.307 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.259 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -7pp (meta-model over 5,795 past events)
03 · WNBA · Aug 12 (Wed) · 7:00 PDT
Golden State Valkyries Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Chicago Sky @ Golden State Valkyries
85.0%
season record 23-9 vs 12-21 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 3)
04 · KBO · Aug 12 (Wed) · 12:00 PDT
벤자민 (Doosan) K 4 or more· Ks 4+
Hanwha @ Doosan
82.0%
K per 9 IP 9.0 → 10.1 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.7 IP· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)
05 · MLB · Aug 12 (Wed) · 7:10 PDT
Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
76.0%
Season AVG 0.290 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.294 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 5,795 past events)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.