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2026-08-13

Today's highest probabilities

A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 20 games across 4 leagues.

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  1. 01 · WNBA · Aug 13 (Thu) · 4:00 PDT

    Atlanta Dream Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability

    Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun

    86.0%

    season record 20-12 vs 8-23 — away adjustment applied· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 1,764 past events)

  2. 02 · WNBA · Aug 13 (Thu) · 5:00 PDT

    New York Liberty Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability

    Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty

    79.0%

    season record 20-14 vs 12-20 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 1)· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 1,764 past events)

  3. 03 · MLB · Aug 13 (Thu) · 10:35 PDT

    Logan Gilbert Ks 5+· K 5+

    Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

    76.0%

    regressed K% 25.9% × opposing lineup K% 24.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 29.9%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 30.1%, expected batters faced 26 → expected strikeouts 7.9, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

  4. 04 · KBO · Aug 13 (Thu) · 12:00 PDT

    최민석 (Doosan) K 4 or more· Ks 4+

    Hanwha @ Doosan

    75.0%

    K per 9 IP 8.3 → 9.3 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.5 IP· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

  5. 05 · KBO · Aug 13 (Thu) · 12:00 PDT

    원태인 (Samsung) K 4 or more· Ks 4+

    Samsung @ KIA

    72.0%

    K per 9 IP 7.8 → 8.9 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.6 IP· calibration -4pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

  6. 06 · MLB · Aug 13 (Thu) · 4:30 PDT

    Taj Bradley Ks 5+· K 5+

    Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins

    72.0%

    regressed K% 26.1% × opposing lineup K% 23.4% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 26.3% → matchup K% 28.3%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 6.7, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

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All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.