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2026-08-14

Today's highest probabilities

A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 22 games across 4 leagues.

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  1. 01 · MLB · Aug 14 (Fri) · 4:10 PDT

    Gavin Williams Ks 5+· K 5+

    San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians

    82.0%

    regressed K% 31.2% × opposing lineup K% 22.3% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 31.2% → matchup K% 33.2%, expected batters faced 25 → expected strikeouts 8.4, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

  2. 02 · WNBA · Aug 14 (Fri) · 7:00 PDT

    Portland Fire Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability

    Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm

    75.0%

    season record 13-20 vs 7-28 — away adjustment applied· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 1,794 past events)

  3. 03 · MLB · Aug 14 (Fri) · 3:10 PDT

    Sandy Alcantara Ks 5+· K 5+

    Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds

    74.0%

    regressed K% 19.3% × opposing lineup K% 25.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 22.0%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 22.5%, expected batters faced 27 → expected strikeouts 6.1, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

  4. 04 · KBO · Aug 14 (Fri) · 12:00 PDT

    김진욱 (Lotte) K 4 or more· Ks 4+

    NC @ Lotte

    72.0%

    K per 9 IP 7.7 → 8.6 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.7 IP· calibration -4pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

  5. 05 · KBO · Aug 14 (Fri) · 12:00 PDT

    KIA team HR 1 or more· Team HR 1+

    Doosan @ KIA

    72.0%

    team HR 1.27 per game — scoring distribution probability of 1+· stacking -20pp (meta-model over 1,009 past events)

  6. 06 · WNBA · Aug 14 (Fri) · 4:30 PDT

    Indiana Fever Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability

    Dallas Wings @ Indiana Fever

    69.0%

    season record 21-12 vs 20-14 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 4)· stacking +6pp (meta-model over 1,794 past events)

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All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.