2026-08-16
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 26 games across 5 leagues.
01 · KBO · Aug 16 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT
곽빈 (Doosan) K 4 or more· Ks 4+
Doosan @ KIA
92.0%
K per 9 IP 11.0 → 12.4 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.8 IP
02 · MLB · Aug 16 (Sun) · 10:37 PDT
Dylan Cease Ks 5+· K 5+
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
92.0%
regressed K% 34.5% × opposing lineup K% 24.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 34.9%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 41.4%, expected batters faced 26 → expected strikeouts 10.8, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation
03 · MLS · Aug 16 (Sun) · 3:00 PDT
Chicago Fire FC 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Portland Timbers @ Chicago Fire FC
91.0%
team expected goals 2.42 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
04 · KBO · Aug 16 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT
페덱 (Samsung) K 4 or more· Ks 4+
Hanwha @ Samsung
90.0%
K per 9 IP 9.8 → 11.0 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 6.0 IP
05 · 라리가 · Aug 16 (Sun) · 8:00 PDT
Racing Santander 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Villarreal @ Racing Santander
89.0%
team expected goals 2.18 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
06 · MLS · Aug 16 (Sun) · 3:00 PDT
New York City FC 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Philadelphia Union @ New York City FC
86.0%
team expected goals 2.00 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.