2026-08-17
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 4 highest outputs selected from 13 games across 3 leagues.
01 · MLB · Aug 17 (Mon) · 4:40 PDT
Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
86.0%
Season AVG 0.272 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.306, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -7pp (meta-model over 5,915 past events)
02 · 라리가 · Aug 17 (Mon) · 12:00 PDT
Deportivo 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Elche @ Deportivo
86.0%
team expected goals 1.95 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
03 · MLB · Aug 17 (Mon) · 3:40 PDT
Cristopher Sánchez Ks 5+· K 5+
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
74.0%
regressed K% 27.4% × opposing lineup K% 22.3% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 32.9%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 31.4%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 7.5, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration +4pp (past 4,529 beta adjusted)
04 · WNBA · Aug 17 (Mon) · 7:00 PDT
Golden State Valkyries Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries
74.0%
season record 24-9 vs 20-15 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 4)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.