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2026-08-24

Today's highest probabilities

A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 17 games across 5 leagues.

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  1. 01 · 라리가 · Aug 24 (Mon) · 10:30 PDT

    Both Total corners 9+· Corners O 8.5

    Levante @ Osasuna

    86.0%

    team별 expected corners 5.3 + 7.3 = 12.6 (슈팅·크로스 based 추정, 일부 team League avg 대체) — scoring distribution P(9+)· calibration -2pp (past 3,910 calibration adjusted)

  2. 02 · 라리가 · Aug 24 (Mon) · 12:30 PDT

    Deportivo 1+ goals· 1+ Goals

    Deportivo @ Málaga

    83.0%

    team expected goals 1.87 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -2pp (past 3,910 calibration adjusted)

  3. 03 · 세리에 A · Aug 24 (Mon) · 11:45 PDT

    AS Roma 1+ goals· 1+ Goals

    Fiorentina @ AS Roma

    79.0%

    team expected goals 1.64 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -2pp (past 3,910 calibration adjusted)

  4. 04 · MLB · Aug 24 (Mon) · 6:40 PDT

    Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+

    Minnesota Twins @ Athletics

    78.0%

    Season AVG 0.252 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.249 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -9pp (meta-model over 5,250 past events)

  5. 05 · MLB · Aug 24 (Mon) · 3:45 PDT

    Luis García Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+

    Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals

    74.0%

    Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.285 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 5,250 past events)

  6. 06 · EPL · Aug 24 (Mon) · 12:00 PDT

    Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5

    Chelsea @ Fulham

    72.0%

    combined expected goals 2.76 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -4pp (past 3,910 calibration adjusted)

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All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.