2026-08-31
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 17 games across 4 leagues.
01 · MLB · Aug 31 (Mon) · 3:45 PDT
Boston Red Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
90.0%
season win% 0.540 (home 74-63) vs away 64-73 0.467, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 9, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 67.7% × simulation 75.5% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +17pp (meta-model over 2,278 past events)
02 · EPL · Aug 31 (Mon) · 12:00 PDT
Arsenal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Arsenal @ Aston Villa
90.0%
team expected goals 1.78 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +7pp (past 3,160 calibration adjusted)
03 · 라리가 · Aug 31 (Mon) · 12:30 PDT
Barcelona 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Rayo Vallecano @ Barcelona
89.0%
team expected goals 2.07 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +2pp (past 160 beta adjusted)
04 · MLB · Aug 31 (Mon) · 3:40 PDT
San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
85.0%
season win% 0.526 (away 72-65) vs home 65-72 0.474, matchup combination after the away discount· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 56.2% × simulation 70.6% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +19pp (meta-model over 2,278 past events)
05 · 세리에 A · Aug 31 (Mon) · 9:30 PDT
AS Roma 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
AS Roma @ Lecce
76.0%
team expected goals 1.48 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -1pp (past 3,160 calibration adjusted)
06 · 세리에 A · Aug 31 (Mon) · 11:45 PDT
Atalanta 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Bologna @ Atalanta
72.0%
team expected goals 1.38 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -3pp (past 3,160 calibration adjusted)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.