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2026-09-14

Today's highest probabilities

A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 16 games across 5 leagues.

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  1. 01 · 세리에 A · Sep 14 (Mon) · 11:45 PDT

    Internazionale 1+ goals· 1+ Goals

    Udinese @ Internazionale

    90.0%

    team expected goals 2.30 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

  2. 02 · 세리에 A · Sep 14 (Mon) · 9:30 PDT

    AS Roma 1+ goals· 1+ Goals

    AS Roma @ Torino

    88.0%

    team expected goals 2.14 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

  3. 03 · NFL · Sep 14 (Mon) · 5:15 PDT

    Kansas City Chiefs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5

    Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

    85.0%

    expected margin 1.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)

  4. 04 · EPL · Sep 14 (Mon) · 12:00 PDT

    Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5

    Newcastle United @ Leeds United

    80.0%

    combined expected goals 2.96 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals

  5. 05 · MLB · Sep 14 (Mon) · 5:40 PDT

    Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+

    San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

    76.0%

    Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.261, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

  6. 06 · MLB · Sep 14 (Mon) · 3:40 PDT

    Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+

    Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

    74.0%

    Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.276 adjusted 0.267, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

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All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.