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2026-09-15

Today's highest probabilities

A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 4 highest outputs selected from 18 games across 2 leagues.

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  1. 01 · 라리가 · Sep 15 (Tue) · 11:00 PDT

    Alavés 1+ goals· 1+ Goals

    Valencia @ Alavés

    92.0%

    team expected goals 2.72 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -1pp (past 210 beta adjusted)

  2. 02 · 라리가 · Sep 15 (Tue) · 10:00 PDT

    Espanyol 1+ goals· 1+ Goals

    Espanyol @ Rayo Vallecano

    86.0%

    team expected goals 2.29 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -4pp (past 210 beta adjusted)

  3. 03 · MLB · Sep 15 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT

    Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line

    Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays

    82.0%

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

  4. 04 · MLB · Sep 15 (Tue) · 5:40 PDT

    Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+

    San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

    78.0%

    Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.297· BvP 7/30 adjusted 0.303, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

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All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.