2026-09-16
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 4 highest outputs selected from 19 games across 2 leagues.
01 · 라리가 · Sep 16 (Wed) · 12:30 PDT
Barcelona Home Win· Home Win
Racing Santander @ Barcelona
85.0%
expected runs 3.00 vs 0.71 (home Points per game 2.83 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
02 · MLB · Sep 16 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
84.0%
Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.284, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -8pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
03 · 라리가 · Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:00 PDT
Atlético Madrid 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Osasuna @ Atlético Madrid
84.0%
team expected goals 2.20 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -5pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
04 · MLB · Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:15 PDT
St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
75.0%
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.