2026-09-17
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 17 games across 4 leagues.
01 · WNBA · Sep 17 (Thu) · 4:30 PDT
Atlanta Dream Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream
92.0%
season record 26-14 vs 10-30 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 3)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
02 · WNBA · Sep 17 (Thu) · 7:00 PDT
Las Vegas Aces Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability
Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm
92.0%
season record 27-13 vs 8-32 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
03 · NFL · Sep 17 (Thu) · 5:15 PDT
Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
85.0%
season 1games 2TD (per game 2.0)· sample 얇아 same 포지션 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 1.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → per game expected 1.9TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
04 · MLB · Sep 17 (Thu) · 10:10 PDT
Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
82.0%
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
05 · MLB · Sep 17 (Thu) · 12:10 PDT
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
75.0%
Season AVG 0.286 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.295 adjusted 0.292, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
06 · 라리가 · Sep 17 (Thu) · 10:00 PDT
Real Betis 1+ goals· 1+ Goals
Getafe @ Real Betis
68.0%
team expected goals 1.61 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -12pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.