2026-09-21
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 5 highest outputs selected from 6 games across 3 leagues.
01 · WNBA · Sep 21 (Mon) · 5:00 PDT
New York Liberty within 10 pts· Spread +9.5
Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty
78.0%
expected margin 0.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
02 · WNBA · Sep 21 (Mon) · 7:00 PDT
Dallas Wings Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability
Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury
74.0%
season record 26-16 vs 15-27 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
03 · NFL · Sep 21 (Mon) · 5:15 PDT
Isaiah Likely 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
73.0%
season 1games 2TD (per game 2.0)· sample 얇아 same 포지션 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 1.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.92 → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
04 · MLB · Sep 21 (Mon) · 3:35 PDT
Baltimore Orioles home +1.5· Run Line
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
69.0%
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
05 · MLB · Sep 21 (Mon) · 6:45 PDT
Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
68.0%
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.