2026-10-04
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 6 highest outputs selected from 20 games across 4 leagues.
01 · NFL · Oct 4 (Sun) · 10:00 PDT
Dallas Cowboys within 15 pts· Spread +14.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
85.0%
expected margin 0.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
02 · MLB · Oct 4 (Sun) · 5:00 PDT
Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
84.0%
season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 9, matchup combination model· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 고probability range shrunk (past 70%+ range 과신 adjusted)
03 · NFL · Oct 4 (Sun) · 10:00 PDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
84.0%
expected margin 0.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
04 · MLB · Oct 4 (Sun) · 1:00 PDT
Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
77.0%
season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 9, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 57.6% × simulation 60.5% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45, ±8pp cap)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied· 고probability range shrunk (past 70%+ range 과신 adjusted)
05 · NBA · Oct 4 (Sun) · 4:00 PDT
Utah Jazz within 10 pts· Spread +9.5
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
75.0%
expected margin 1.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
06 · NBA · Oct 4 (Sun) · 4:00 PDT
Golden State Warriors within 10 pts· Spread +9.5
Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers
75.0%
expected margin 0.9 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.