2026-10-05
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 5 highest outputs selected from 8 games across 3 leagues.
01 · NFL · Oct 5 (Mon) · 5:15 PDT
New Orleans Saints within 15 pts· Spread +14.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
86.0%
expected margin 0.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
02 · MLB · Oct 5 (Mon) · 2:00 PDT
Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
77.0%
season win% 1.000 (away 1-0) vs home 0-1 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 47.9% × simulation 45.0% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45, ±8pp cap)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied· 고probability range shrunk (past 70%+ range 과신 adjusted)
03 · MLB · Oct 5 (Mon) · 5:00 PDT
Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
77.0%
season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 4, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 53.7% × simulation 33.9% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45, ±8pp cap)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied· 고probability range shrunk (past 70%+ range 과신 adjusted)
04 · NBA · Oct 5 (Mon) · 4:00 PDT
Memphis Grizzlies within 10 pts· Spread +9.5
Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks
77.0%
expected margin 0.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
05 · NBA · Oct 5 (Mon) · 4:00 PDT
New York Knicks within 10 pts· Spread +9.5
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
75.0%
expected margin 1.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.