expected runs 2.95 vs 0.73 (home Points per game 2.55 / runs allowed 1.06) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Bayern Munich 78.3–85.7%, Draw 8.9–15.1%, 1. FC Union Berlin 3.7–8.3%
Bayern Munich leads mainly on recent attacking output (2.23 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 12%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
1
7
6
2
2
11
8
3
3
11
8
3
4
8
6
2
5
5
3
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
49%
Bayern Munich clean sheet
48%
1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet
5%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
