MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.25 vs 1.29 (away Points per game 2.16 / runs allowed 1.38)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: FC Augsburg 13.6–26.4%, Draw 14.5–27.5%, Bayer Leverkusen 51.1–66.9%
Bayer Leverkusen leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.97 more expected goals). The draw sits at 21%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
6
7
5
3
1
1
3
9
10
7
4
2
2
2
5
6
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
32%
Both teams score
65%
FC Augsburg clean sheet
10%
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet
28%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
