Bayer Leverkusen at Mainz — Game center Scheduled Bundesliga
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Bayer Leverkusen 45%
Draw 22%
Mainz 33%
Behind the probability expected runs 2.03 vs 1.63 (away Points per game 2.24 / runs allowed 1.38)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.63 - 2.03
+7.1%p vs league average
3.66 vs 3.24 goals
-2.5%p
Head to head Bayer Leverkusen Mainz
Model expected goals
2.03 1.63
Data source: ESPN API
Phillip Tietz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Patrik Schick Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sheraldo Becker Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 High
combined expected goals 3.66 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
88% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals· 1+ Goals High
team expected goals 2.03 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
87% Mainz 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Mainz 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Mainz clean sheet· Clean Sheet Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 Bayer Leverkusen Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.03 vs 1.63 (away Points per game 2.24 / runs allowed 1.38)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
45% Mainz Home Win· Home Win High
expected runs 1.63 vs 2.03 (home Points per game 1.73 / runs allowed 1.56) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
33% DR Draw draw· Draw High
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
22% Goalscorers16 Phillip Tietz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Phillip Tietz 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Patrik Schick Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Patrik Schick 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sheraldo Becker Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sheraldo Becker 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Christian Kofane Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Christian Kofane 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Phillipp Mwene Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Phillipp Mwene 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Danny da Costa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Danny da Costa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ibrahim Maza Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ibrahim Maza 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Miguel Gutiérrez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Miguel Gutiérrez 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Mainz KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Bayer Leverkusen Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Mainz 18.8–43.2%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Bayer Leverkusen 33.8–60.2%
Bayer Leverkusen leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.40 more expected goals). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 3 5 5 3 2 1 4 9 9 6 3 1 2 3 7 7 5 2 3 2 4 4 3 1 4 1 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 70%
Under 2.5 goals 30%
Both teams score 70%
Mainz clean sheet 13%
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet 20% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
