expected runs 2.77 vs 1.02 (away Points per game 2.66 / runs allowed 1.06)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: FC Augsburg 7.1–12.9%, Draw 12.5–19.5%, Bayern Munich 69.8–78.2%
Bayern Munich leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.75 more expected goals). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
6
9
8
5
3
1
2
7
9
8
6
3
2
1
3
4
4
3
2
3
1
1
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Under 2.5 goals
28%
Both teams score
60%
FC Augsburg clean sheet
6%
Bayern Munich clean sheet
36%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
