URSAPHARM-Arena an der KaiserlindeSep 13 (Sun) · 3:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Bayern Munich71%
Draw19%
SV Elversberg10%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.32 vs 0.94 (away Points per game 2.71 / runs allowed 1.06)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Bayern Munich leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.38 more expected goals). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
9
10
8
4
2
1
3
9
10
8
4
2
2
2
4
5
4
2
1
3
1
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals
37%
Both teams score
56%
SV Elversberg clean sheet
10%
Bayern Munich clean sheet
39%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
