expected runs 2.53 vs 1.24 (home Points per game 1.95 / runs allowed 1.38) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
RB Leipzig leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.29 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
3
2
1
6
8
4
2
2
8
9
6
2
3
6
8
5
2
4
4
5
3
1
5
2
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Under 2.5 goals
28%
Both teams score
66%
RB Leipzig clean sheet
29%
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet
8%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
