expected runs 1.48 vs 1.65 (away Points per game 1.44 / runs allowed 1.79)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Werder Bremen 33.1–48.9%, Draw 18.1–31.9%, FC Augsburg 26.4–41.6%
Werder Bremen leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.17 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
6
5
2
1
7
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
3
5
4
2
4
1
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
Both teams score
63%
Werder Bremen clean sheet
23%
FC Augsburg clean sheet
19%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
