expected runs 1.59 vs 1.34 (away Points per game 1.72 / runs allowed 1.85)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Hamburg SV 18.8–43.2%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, FC Cologne 29.9–56.1%
FC Cologne leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.25 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
8
7
3
1
1
7
12
9
5
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
1
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
59%
Hamburg SV clean sheet
20%
FC Cologne clean sheet
26%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
