expected runs 2.11 vs 0.93 (home Points per game 1.96 / runs allowed 1.53) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
TSG Hoffenheim leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.18 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 21%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
4
2
1
10
10
4
1
2
11
10
5
1
3
7
7
3
1
4
4
4
2
5
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
42%
Both teams score
54%
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet
40%
Hamburg SV clean sheet
12%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
