Mainz at Borussia Mönchengladbach — Game center Final Bundesliga
Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Mainz 38%
Draw 26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 83% Hit Borussia Mönchengladbach 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 79% Hit Mainz 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 80% Hit Showing 3 of 23 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.60 vs 1.70 (away Points per game 1.77 / runs allowed 1.56)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.70 - 1.60
-1.7%p vs league average
3.30 vs 3.24 goals
-0.4%p
Head to head Mainz Borussia Mönchengladbach
Model expected goals
1.60 1.70
Data source: ESPN API
Phillip Tietz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hugo Bolin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sheraldo Becker Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 High
combined expected goals 3.30 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 7/2 Hit
83% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Mainz 1+ goals· 1+ Goals High
team expected goals 1.60 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 4/1 Hit
80% Borussia Mönchengladbach 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Mainz 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Borussia Mönchengladbach 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet· Clean Sheet Mainz clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 Mainz Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 1.60 vs 1.70 (away Points per game 1.77 / runs allowed 1.56)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 4/4 Hit
38% Borussia Mönchengladbach Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.70 vs 1.60 (home Points per game 1.60 / runs allowed 1.56) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 3/5 Miss
36% DR Draw draw· Draw High
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
26% Goalscorers16 Phillip Tietz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Phillip Tietz 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Hugo Bolin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Hugo Bolin 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sheraldo Becker Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sheraldo Becker 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Joe Scally Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Joe Scally 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Isac Lidberg Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Isac Lidberg 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shuto Machino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shuto Machino 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Phillipp Mwene Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Phillipp Mwene 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Danny da Costa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Danny da Costa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Borussia Mönchengladbach KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Mainz Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32.2–47.8%, Draw 18.1–31.9%, Mainz 28.3–43.7%
Attacking output is close (1.70 vs 1.60 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 6 5 2 1 6 11 8 4 2 2 5 8 7 4 1 3 3 5 4 2 4 1 2 2 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 64%
Under 2.5 goals 36%
Both teams score 66%
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet 20%
Mainz clean sheet 18% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
