RB Leipzig at Bayer Leverkusen — Game center Final Bundesliga
Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast RB Leipzig 28%
Draw 22%
Bayer Leverkusen 50%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 90% Hit Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 89% Hit RB Leipzig 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 81% Miss Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.09 vs 1.56 (home Points per game 2.23 / runs allowed 1.38) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.09 - 1.56
+9.7%p vs league average
3.65 vs 3.24 goals
+2.5%p
Head to head RB Leipzig Bayer Leverkusen
Model expected goals
1.56 2.09
Data source: ESPN API
Patrik Schick Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Christian Kofane Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Antonio Nusa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 High
combined expected goals 3.65 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
90% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals· 1+ Goals High
team expected goals 2.09 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
89% RB Leipzig 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals· 2+ Goals RB Leipzig 2+ goals· 2+ Goals RB Leipzig clean sheet· Clean Sheet Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 Bayer Leverkusen Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.09 vs 1.56 (home Points per game 2.23 / runs allowed 1.38) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/1 Hit
50% RB Leipzig Away Win· Away Win High
expected runs 1.56 vs 2.09 (away Points per game 1.94 / runs allowed 1.38)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/3 Miss
28% DR Draw draw· Draw High
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
22% Goalscorers16 Patrik Schick Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Patrik Schick 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Christian Kofane Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Christian Kofane 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Antonio Nusa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Antonio Nusa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ridle Baku Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ridle Baku 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ibrahim Maza Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ibrahim Maza 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Miguel Gutiérrez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Miguel Gutiérrez 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Willi Orbán Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Willi Orbán 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Christopher Nkunku Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Christopher Nkunku 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Bayer Leverkusen KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
RB Leipzig MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 50.0%
Draw 22.0%
Away win 28.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Bayer Leverkusen 36.8–63.2%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, RB Leipzig 16.1–39.9%
Bayer Leverkusen leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.54 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 3 4 3 2 1 5 9 7 3 1 2 6 9 7 4 1 3 4 6 5 3 1 4 2 3 3 1 5 1 1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 70%
Under 2.5 goals 30%
Both teams score 70%
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet 21%
RB Leipzig clean sheet 12% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
