SC Freiburg at Eintracht Frankfurt — Game center Final Bundesliga
Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast SC Freiburg 41%
Draw 22%
Eintracht Frankfurt 37%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 90% Hit SC Freiburg 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 86% Hit Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 85% Hit Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.07 vs 1.78 (away Points per game 1.87 / runs allowed 1.68)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.78 - 2.07
+5.2%p vs league average
3.85 vs 3.24 goals
-3.7%p
Head to head SC Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt
Model expected goals
2.07 1.78
Data source: ESPN API
Yuito Suzuki Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Igor Matanovic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Younes Ebnoutalib Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 High
combined expected goals 3.85 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 4/2 Hit
90% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 SC Freiburg 1+ goals· 1+ Goals High
team expected goals 2.07 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
86% Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals· 1+ Goals SC Freiburg 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet· Clean Sheet SC Freiburg clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 SC Freiburg Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.07 vs 1.78 (away Points per game 1.87 / runs allowed 1.68)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/3 Miss
41% Eintracht Frankfurt Home Win· Home Win High
expected runs 1.78 vs 2.07 (home Points per game 1.56 / runs allowed 1.91) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/3 Miss
37% DR Draw draw· Draw High
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
22% Goalscorers14 Yuito Suzuki Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuito Suzuki 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Igor Matanovic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Igor Matanovic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Younes Ebnoutalib Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Younes Ebnoutalib 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Maximilian Eggestein Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Maximilian Eggestein 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yannick Engelhardt Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yannick Engelhardt 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jonathan Burkardt Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Can Uzun Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jonathan Burkardt 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Can Uzun 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Eintracht Frankfurt KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
SC Freiburg MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 33.0%
Draw 22.0%
Away win 45.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Eintracht Frankfurt 20.6–45.4%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, SC Freiburg 31.9–58.1%
SC Freiburg leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.29 more expected goals). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 3 4 5 3 2 1 3 8 8 6 3 1 2 3 7 7 5 3 1 3 2 4 4 3 2 4 2 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 73%
Under 2.5 goals 27%
Both teams score 73%
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet 13%
SC Freiburg clean sheet 17% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
