expected runs 1.27 vs 1.26 (home Points per game 1.24 / runs allowed 1.71) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: 1. FC Union Berlin 23.3–48.7%, Draw 17–41%, SV Elversberg 22.4–47.6%
Attacking output is close (1.27 vs 1.26 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
9
6
3
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
6
8
5
2
3
3
3
2
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
52%
1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet
28%
SV Elversberg clean sheet
28%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
