TSG Hoffenheim at SC Paderborn 07 — Game center Final Bundesliga
Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast TSG Hoffenheim 61%
Draw 23%
SC Paderborn 07 16%
Locked before start
TSG Hoffenheim 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 88% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 85% Hit SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 71% Hit Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.98 vs 1.35 (away Points per game 1.95 / runs allowed 1.53)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.35 - 1.98
+11.3%p vs league average
3.33 vs 3.24 goals
-0.6%p
Head to head TSG Hoffenheim SC Paderborn 07
Model expected goals
1.98 1.35
Data source: ESPN API
Adam Hlozek Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adam Daghim Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Santiago Castaneda Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 TSG Hoffenheim 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.98 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 1/1 Hit
88% SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals· 1+ Goals TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals· 2+ Goals SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals· 2+ Goals SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet· Clean Sheet TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.33 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 4/2 Hit
85% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 TSG Hoffenheim Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.98 vs 1.35 (away Points per game 1.95 / runs allowed 1.53)
goals 1/4 Miss
61% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
23% SC Paderborn 07 Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.35 vs 1.98 (home Points per game 1.30 / runs allowed 1.75) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 3/2 Hit
16% Goalscorers14 Adam Hlozek Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adam Hlozek 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adam Daghim Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adam Daghim 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Santiago Castaneda Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Santiago Castaneda 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Stefano Marino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Stefano Marino 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Steffen Tigges Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Steffen Tigges 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Leon Avdullahu Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Leon Avdullahu 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ozan Kabak Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ozan Kabak 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
SC Paderborn 07 KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
TSG Hoffenheim MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 25.0%
Draw 23.0%
Away win 52.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: SC Paderborn 07 13.6–36.4%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, TSG Hoffenheim 38.8–65.2%
TSG Hoffenheim leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.63 more expected goals). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 7 7 4 2 1 4 10 9 6 3 1 2 3 6 6 4 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 64%
Under 2.5 goals 36%
Both teams score 65%
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet 14%
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet 26% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
