VfB Stuttgart at SC Paderborn 07 — Game center Scheduled Bundesliga
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish VfB Stuttgart 46%
Draw 24%
SC Paderborn 07 30%
Behind the probability expected runs 1.76 vs 1.28 (away Points per game 1.74 / runs allowed 1.44)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.28 - 1.76
+8.8%p vs league average
3.04 vs 3.24 goals
+1.2%p
Head to head VfB Stuttgart SC Paderborn 07
Model expected goals
1.76 1.28
Data source: ESPN API
Josha Vagnoman Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Santiago Castaneda Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Stefano Marino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.76 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
83% SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals· 1+ Goals VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals· 2+ Goals SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals· 2+ Goals SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet· Clean Sheet VfB Stuttgart clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.04 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
81% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 VfB Stuttgart Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.76 vs 1.28 (away Points per game 1.74 / runs allowed 1.44)
46% SC Paderborn 07 Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.28 vs 1.76 (home Points per game 1.30 / runs allowed 1.75) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
30% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
24% Goalscorers14 Josha Vagnoman Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Santiago Castaneda Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Santiago Castaneda 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Stefano Marino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Stefano Marino 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Steffen Tigges Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Steffen Tigges 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Josha Vagnoman 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Grischa Prömel Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Grischa Prömel 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Maximilian Mittelstädt Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Maximilian Mittelstädt 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Bilal El Khannouss Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bilal El Khannouss 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
SC Paderborn 07 KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 1:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
VfB Stuttgart MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 27.0%
Draw 25.0%
Away win 48.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: SC Paderborn 07 15.3–38.7%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, VfB Stuttgart 34.8–61.2%
VfB Stuttgart leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.49 more expected goals). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 6 8 7 4 2 1 6 11 9 6 2 2 4 7 6 4 2 3 2 3 3 2 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Under 2.5 goals 42%
Both teams score 61%
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet 17%
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet 28% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
