expected runs 2.14 vs 0.83 (home Points per game 1.78 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Borussia Dortmund leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.31 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
4
2
1
11
10
4
2
12
10
4
1
3
8
7
3
4
4
4
2
5
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
50%
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
44%
Werder Bremen clean sheet
12%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
