Blackburn Rovers at Portsmouth — Game center Final Championship
Sep 19 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Blackburn Rovers 22%
Draw 28%
Portsmouth 50%
Locked before start
Portsmouth 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 81% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 77% Hit Blackburn Rovers 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 67% Hit Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.82 vs 1.17 (home Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 1.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.82 - 1.17
+11.6%p vs league average
2.99 vs 2.92 goals
+0.4%p
Head to head Blackburn Rovers Portsmouth
Model expected goals
1.17 1.82
Data source: ESPN API
Marko Milovanovic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Andri Gudjohnsen Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrian Segecic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Portsmouth 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.82 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
81% Blackburn Rovers 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Portsmouth 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Blackburn Rovers clean sheet· Clean Sheet Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Portsmouth clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.99 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 4/2 Hit
77% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Portsmouth Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.82 vs 1.17 (home Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 1.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/3 Miss
50% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
28% Blackburn Rovers Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.17 vs 1.82 (away Points per game 1.33 / runs allowed 1.50)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/3 Miss
22% Goalscorers19 Marko Milovanovic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marko Milovanovic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Andri Gudjohnsen Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Andri Gudjohnsen 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adrian Segecic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Oladapo Afolayan Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrian Segecic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Zak Swanson Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Zak Swanson 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Colby Bishop Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Colby Bishop 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Oladapo Afolayan 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ryoya Morishita Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ryoya Morishita 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sean McLoughlin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sean McLoughlin 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Marko Milovanovic 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Oladapo Afolayan 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Andri Gudjohnsen 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Portsmouth KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Blackburn Rovers MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 52.0%
Draw 25.0%
Away win 23.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Portsmouth 38.8–65.2%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Blackburn Rovers 11.9–34.1%
Portsmouth leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.65 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 6 5 3 1 1 9 11 6 2 2 8 10 6 2 3 5 6 4 1 4 2 3 2 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Under 2.5 goals 43%
Both teams score 59%
Portsmouth clean sheet 31%
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet 16% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
