expected runs 1.77 vs 0.91 (home Points per game 1.81 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Cardiff City 43.9–70.1%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Charlton Athletic 7.8–28.2%
Cardiff City leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.85 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
5
3
1
12
12
5
1
2
11
10
4
1
3
6
6
3
4
3
3
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
51%
Cardiff City clean sheet
40%
Charlton Athletic clean sheet
17%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
