expected runs 1.83 vs 1.56 (home Points per game 1.34 / runs allowed 2.13) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Burnley 30.9–57.1%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Derby County 19.7–44.3%
Burnley leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.27 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
5
4
2
1
6
10
7
4
1
2
6
9
7
4
1
3
3
5
4
2
4
1
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals
35%
Both teams score
67%
Burnley clean sheet
21%
Derby County clean sheet
16%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
