expected runs 1.69 vs 1.63 (home Points per game 1.44 / runs allowed 1.38) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Birmingham City 26.1–51.9%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Middlesbrough 23.3–48.7%
Attacking output is close (1.69 vs 1.63 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
5
5
2
1
6
11
8
4
2
2
5
8
7
4
2
3
3
5
4
2
4
1
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals
36%
Both teams score
66%
Birmingham City clean sheet
20%
Middlesbrough clean sheet
18%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
