expected runs 2.40 vs 0.69 (home Points per game 1.64 / runs allowed 0.88) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Queens Park Rangers 75%Draw 17%Preston North End 8%
Estimated range: Queens Park Rangers 68.1–81.9%, Draw 11–23%, Preston North End 3.7–12.3%
Queens Park Rangers leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.71 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
3
1
11
8
2
2
13
9
3
3
10
7
3
4
6
4
2
5
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Both teams score
46%
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
50%
Preston North End clean sheet
9%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
