expected runs 1.49 vs 0.89 (home Points per game 1.38 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Stoke City 36.8–63.2%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, Sheffield United 10.2–31.8%
Stoke City leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.60 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
7
4
1
1
13
13
5
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
5
2
4
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
47%
Stoke City clean sheet
41%
Sheffield United clean sheet
23%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
