Southampton at Wrexham — Game center Final Championship
Sep 19 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Southampton 60%
Draw 25%
Wrexham 15%
Locked before start
Southampton 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 85% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 80% Hit Wrexham 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 65% Hit Showing 3 of 31 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.78 vs 1.13 (away Points per game 1.93 / runs allowed 1.25)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.13 - 1.78
+11.8%p
Head to head Southampton Wrexham
Model expected goals
1.78 1.13
Data source: ESPN API
Cyle Larin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Finn Azaz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Léo Scienza Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Southampton 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.78 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 1/1 Hit
85% Wrexham 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Southampton 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Wrexham clean sheet· Clean Sheet Wrexham 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Southampton clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 2.92 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 3/2 Hit
80% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Southampton Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.78 vs 1.13 (away Points per game 1.93 / runs allowed 1.25)
goals 1/3 Miss
60% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
25% Wrexham Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.13 vs 1.78 (home Points per game 1.16 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/2 Hit
15% Goalscorers19 Cyle Larin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Cyle Larin 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Finn Azaz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Finn Azaz 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Léo Scienza Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kieffer Moore Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jacques Ekomie Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Léo Scienza 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kieffer Moore 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jacques Ekomie 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ryan Manning Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Callum Doyle Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Callum Doyle 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Danny Imray Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Danny Imray 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ryan Manning 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Cyle Larin 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kieffer Moore 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Finn Azaz 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Wrexham KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 2:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Southampton MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 23.0%
Draw 25.0%
Away win 52.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Wrexham 11.9–34.1%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Southampton 38.8–65.2%
Southampton leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.65 more expected goals). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 6 9 9 5 2 1 5 12 10 6 3 2 3 6 6 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Under 2.5 goals 45%
Both teams score 57%
Wrexham clean sheet 17%
Southampton clean sheet 32% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
