expected runs 0.86 vs 0.71 (away Points per game 1.40 / runs allowed 0.75)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Lincoln City 15.3–38.7%, Draw 25.2–50.8%, Swansea City 23.3–48.7%
Swansea City leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.15 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 38% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
22
17
8
2
1
14
14
6
2
2
5
5
2
3
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
21%
Under 2.5 goals
79%
Both teams score
31%
Lincoln City clean sheet
42%
Swansea City clean sheet
49%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
