West Bromwich Albion at Wolverhampton Wanderers — Game center Final Championship
Sep 20 (Sun) · 11:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast West Bromwich Albion 28%
Draw 29%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 43%
Locked before start
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 77% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 76% Miss West Bromwich Albion 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 71% Miss Showing 3 of 32 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.45 vs 1.00 (home Points per game 1.85 / runs allowed 1.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.45 - 1.00
+8.1%p vs league average
2.45 vs 2.92 goals
-2.8%p
Head to head West Bromwich Albion Wolverhampton Wanderers
Model expected goals
1.00 1.45
Data source: ESPN API
Fernando López Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Raúl Jiménez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jimmy Morgan Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.45 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 1/1 Hit
77% West Bromwich Albion 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+ goals· 2+ Goals West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals· 2+ Goals West Bromwich Albion clean sheet· Clean Sheet Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.45 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 1/2 Miss
76% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Wolverhampton Wanderers Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.45 vs 1.00 (home Points per game 1.85 / runs allowed 1.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/1 Hit
43% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
29% West Bromwich Albion Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.00 vs 1.45 (away Points per game 1.13 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/2 Miss
28% Goalscorers19 Fernando López Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Raúl Jiménez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jimmy Morgan Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Fernando López 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Raúl Jiménez 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jimmy Morgan 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Marshall Munetsi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Rodrigo Gomes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Callum Styles Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Isaac Price Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Aune Heggebo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marshall Munetsi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Rodrigo Gomes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Callum Styles 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Isaac Price 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Aune Heggebo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Fernando López 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Raúl Jiménez 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Jimmy Morgan 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Wolverhampton Wanderers KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 11:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
West Bromwich Albion Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Wolverhampton Wanderers 33.8–60.2%, Draw 17–41%, West Bromwich Albion 13.6–36.4%
Wolverhampton Wanderers leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.45 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 10 8 4 1 1 12 13 6 2 2 9 9 5 2 3 4 4 2 4 1 2 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 44%
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams score 50%
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet 37%
West Bromwich Albion clean sheet 23% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
